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As COVID-19 cases near 30K, social distancing falters while new model shows state at risk for spike

The Georgia Department of Public Health’s latest statistics – as of 6:25 p.m. on May 4 – show confirmed cases of COVID-19 stand at 29,437 and the death toll at 1,243. That’s 64 more deaths and 766 new cases in 24 hours.

As the number of deaths in Georgia tick up, there’s concern that social distancing measures are being ignored in the wake of Gov. Brian Kemp letting the shelter-in-place order expire on May 1.

Over the weekend, Piedmont Park, Atlanta BeltLine, and an illegal stunt driving and fireworks event near Mall West End drew thousands of people  –  many not wearing masks or observing social distancing. Atlanta was trending on social media all weekend as photos circulated of un-masked crowds gathering Saturday for the Blue Angels/Thunderbird fly over to salute medical workers.

There was a line of shoppers waiting to get into Lenox Square on Monday morning when it reopened, despite most of the retailers inside still being shuttered, while photos on Twitter showed shoppers crowding a store at Greenbriar Mall to buy the new Air Jordan sneakers.

Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms took to Twitter on Monday afternoon to remind Atlanta residents that they were endangering themselves and linking to an article in Forbes that cites a new study showing Georgia has increased its COVID-19 exposure risk by 42 percent by reopening businesses and restaurants.

The mayor tweeted: For those who crowded at Greenbriar awaiting the new Jordans, gathered at Piedmont Pk, shot fireworks at the Mall West End & even those now shopping at Lennox Square Mall, know that the only thing that’s changed about Covid-19 is your chance of catching.

The Forbes article said the COVID-19 Case Mapper – compiled by Stanford University’s Big Local News in collaboration with Pitch Interactive and Google News Initiative –  showed the risk of exposure to COVID-19 from April 21 (two days before Georgia businesses began to reopen) to May 2  increased from 180.7 to 256.8 – an increase of 42 percent.

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Trials to be delayed as statewide judicial emergency order extended to June 12

The closure of state courts to trials and many other hearings will continue through June 12 in an extension of a pandemic emergency order.

Harold Melton, chief justice of the Supreme Court of Georgia, first declared the emergency March 14. Following an earlier renewal, it was to expire May 13.

The extension comes as many Georgia businesses are reopening after a controversial decision by Gov. Brian Kemp to lift some shutdown and shelter-in-place restrictions. In a press release, Melton said that social distancing requirements make the judicial emergency extension necessary.

“The courts are different from most private establishments and public places in that we compel people to attend court proceedings, and that requires us to be extra cautious,” he said.

Under the order, criminal and civil jury trials will continue to be suspended, as will a prohibition on summoning jurors. Courts remain opening for essential and emergency actions.

The shutdown means that courts will face a growing backlog of cases. The press release says that courts will be “urged” to use technology to deal with that as much as possible, including by teleconferenced judicial hearings. Under the updated order, the press release says, “judges will have clearer authority to move certain cases.”

The extension order will make it clear that chief judges of judicial circuits “may impose more restrictive judicial emergency orders if required by local conditions,” the press release says. It will direct each court to develop health guidelines for in-person proceedings and to post them in the court and online.

Melton will form a task force to advise courts on conducting remote proceedings and planning for more in-court proceedings, the press release said.

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UPDATE: Lenox Square and Phipps Plaza reopen for customers today

Lenox Square (Courtesy Simon)

Lenox Square and Phipps Plaza reopened to shoppers this morning  at 11 a.m. Monday, but with protocols in place  to maintain social distancing as the COVID-19 outbreak continues.

Simon Property Group had planned to reopen its malls on May 1, but delayed until May 4. While Simon didn’t offer an exact reason for the delay, the controversial decision to reopen the Buckhead shopping malls was widely panned on social media and Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said it was “too soon.”

Both Phipps and Lenox will have the same business hours for now – 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. Monday through Saturday and noon to 6 p.m. Sunday. This will give crews a chance to clean the malls overnight, and Simon said there would be regular sanitizing of high-touch areas like food court tables, escalators, door knobs and electronic directories. Simon is encouraging its retailers to do the same in their stores.

Simon is leaving it up to individual retailers if they want to reopen. Customers should call ahead to see if a specific shop has reopened. Macy’s sent out its on press release stating it would be open on Monday, while touting its safety measures and contactless curbside pickup for those not brave enough to venture into the stores just yet.

Simon has also posted its list of safety protocols online, including limiting the number of shoppers, temperature testing, hand sanitizing and mask packets, limiting food court seating, and employees are being required to wear masks.

Perimeter Mall, Cumberland Mall and Northlake Mall are set to reopen tomorrow, May 5.

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NARI Atlanta: How Atlanta Professional Associations are Helping Businesses Adapt to the New Normal

Businesses everywhere have had to quickly develop innovative new procedures for safe and effective operation during the COVID-19 pandemic.  For some small mom-and-pop enterprises to large corporations, the need to re-think operations has been overwhelming.  Thankfully, professional associations across the country have taken the lead by providing members with the latest information, best practice ideas, technical support and education, helping companies of all sizes quickly put procedures in place for the “new normal”.

One example of a professional organization that has quickly reached out to help its members is NARI Atlanta, the local chapter of the National Association of the Remodeling Industry.  “The remodeling industry is a highly personal profession,” said Mark Galey, CEO of Sandy Springs-based Master Home Remodelers and 2019-2020 board president of NARI Atlanta.  “When you are working in someone’s home, the contractor and crew work in partnership with the homeowner to fulfill the homeowner’s vision.  This involves numerous conversations, decisions, demonstrations, work and product review and more.  Prior to March 1, most of these conversations took place in person, in the home.  Obviously, you cannot build or remodel a home remotely, and most homeowners can’t move out for the duration of the project, so our industry had to quickly develop and implement new ways of interacting and doing business that protect both the customer and the workers.”

Kathryn Stempler, executive director of NARI Atlanta, immediately went to work researching and providing information for the organization’s 240 members on subjects as varied as the latest CDC safety guidelines to using teleconferencing technology or putting procedures in place for administrative staff working from home.  “As a professional organization, it is our responsibility to provide the latest information to our members as quickly and accurately as possible,” said Stempler.  “We have posted tutorials, articles, best practices and other information daily on the www.nariatlanta.org website.  Our members are generous in sharing ideas with each other, so they don’t have to reinvent the wheel.  I believe some of the new procedures will work so well, they will be used moving forward once social distancing is no longer required.”

In addition to increased daily sanitation of surfaces and materials and wearing protective gear such as masks and booties, many builders and remodelers have implemented the following:

Enhancing their websites so customers can more easily see examples of other projects, read client reviews and get general cost estimates.

Creating varying staging areas and budgeting time for delivered materials to sit outside for 48 hours to decontaminate prior to bringing them inside the home

Interacting with clients virtually through all phases of the project via FaceTime and teleconferencing

Enabling remote document signing

Creating online estimates and bill paying

Limiting the number of workers in the home at any one time

Creating  a clear physical separation with plastic sheeting and other materials (when possible) of work areas and living space

Moving administrative and sales personnel to in-home offices

Eliminating large, in-person team meetings

“It’s been interesting to discover which of our new procedures are actually so efficient, many builders will most likely continue them after the pandemic has subsided,” said Galey.  “For example, as customers become more used to virtual meetings, we are able to schedule them more quickly and efficiently, since the contractor doesn’t have to travel and the homeowner doesn’t have to wait at home.  We have successfully had our homeowners use their smart phones or tablets at the earliest stages of a project to show us areas of the home and to discuss their home improvement wish list.  We can ask questions, clarify the scope of work and even work up a preliminary budget before we visit the home, which is a tremendous time-saver.  Another unexpected benefit of the current situation is that nearly all of our clients are now working at home.  That means our crew can ask questions and get direction in real time because the homeowner is right there.  There are so many details that come up during the work – does the homeowner like this shade of paint, or that?  Do they want the drawer pulls in the center or at the top?  Which color of tile grout do they prefer?

“At the same time, there are new delays,” Galey continued.  “We are no longer scheduling different groups of workers in the house at the same time.  Up until February, it wasn’t unusual to have the electrician, plumber, painter, roofer, etc. all working at the same time, but now to safely maintain social distancing for our clients and crew, we are spreading out the work and allowing fewer workers in the home on any given day.  It means each project takes a little longer, but I believe everyone involved appreciates the extra safety measures.”

The COVID-19 pandemic is a fluid situation, and businesses will be making continued adjustments as time goes on.  With the help of professional organizations like NARI Atlanta, members can focus on running their business, while their professional organization focuses on providing the tools and learning opportunities necessary to help the businesses stay on track.

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Historic Home of Georgia Suffragette and Emory’s First Female Student Now for Sale in Druid Hills Neighborhood

It’s not every day a storied Atlanta home comes on the market, but just such a home is now available in Druid Hills.  870 Lullwater Road was built in 1914 for railroad magnate William Greene Raoul and his family.  It was one of the first homes to be built in what was then the new neighborhood of Druid Hills, designed by renowned landscape architect Frederick Law Olmsted.  Sadly, Raoul would pass away before the home’s completion, but his wife, Mary Millen Wadley Raoul, and family, including daughter Eléonore Raoul, moved in upon the home’s completion.

Mary Raoul was active in many community organizations, and founded The Every Saturday Club, which developed free kindergartens in her new home city of Atlanta.  Daughter Eléonore Raoul followed her mother’s lead, becoming involved in numerous causes.  She served as president of the Atlanta Chapter of the Georgia Woman Equal Suffrage League and Chair of the Fulton and DeKalb County branches of the Equal Suffrage Party of Georgia.  Among her many accomplishments, however, Eléonore is perhaps best known locally as the first woman to be formally enrolled at Emory University.

As the story goes, knowing Chancellor Warren Candler’s objection to women students at Emory, Eléonore walked to the nearby university from her Lullwater home while the Chancellor was away from campus and enrolled in Emory University’s Lamar School of Law in 1917.  She graduated in 1920, and two years later was named president of the Atlanta League of Women Voters.  She married former Emory classmate Harry L. Greene, and the two lived with their three children in the family home at 870 Lullwater Road.  In 1979, Emory University established the Eléonore Raoul Trailblazer Award which is given to an Emory Law School alumna who has blazed a trail for others through her own professional and personal endeavors.  Eléonore lived to be 94 and died in 1983.

“The opportunity to own this historic estate home designed by Walter T. Downing is an opportunity to own a part of Atlanta’s rich history,” said Kellum Smith of Engel & Völkers Buckhead Atlanta, who has the property listed.  “I love that this home is where Eléonore Raoul lived and worked.  I can envision her in front of the library fire making plans and writing speeches late into the night to embolden the suffragettes.  As a real estate professional who specializes in Druid Hills and Atlanta’s best Intown neighborhoods, I am always surprised by how many people do not know about the Druid Hills neighborhood and its gorgeous architecture and rich history.  If you have been to Callanwolde Fine Arts Center, Fernbank Museum of Natural History or the Druid Hills Golf Club, then you have been to Druid Hills.  The neighborhood is also home to the famous “Driving Miss Daisy” house, which is just three doors down from 870 Lullwater Road.”

The Raoul and Greene family home remains as gracious as it did during Eléonore’s long life.  The lovely English-style Tudor home on two acres has only had a few owners over its 100+ years, and retains its splendid architectural features.  It’s situated on a hilltop on two pristine acres with treetop views of the Lullwater Conservation Garden and Bird Sanctuary from the front terrace, library and master suite.  Fortunately, the home’s owners have appreciated its many original architectural elements and left them unchanged through the years.  These include a tiled front terrace, elegant oak-paneled library and expansive foyer with a grand staircase.  The home also boasts seven fireplaces with original surrounds, limestone lintels in the solarium, mahogany pocket doors leading to a private suite of upstairs rooms, slate roof, copper gutters and much more.  Outside, the rear of the home includes a private courtyard, guest house, fire pit, sweeping lawn and English-style herb and flower garden.  Landscape architect Ed Castro designed the grounds in keeping with the home’s history.

“I believe Walter T. Downing and the Raoul family would be proud to see how well the original architecture has been preserved,” said Smith.  “We are looking for a special buyer who appreciates the home’s history and features and will continue its tradition.  Of course, we expect people will want to make improvements to the home to suit their needs, but that can certainly be done without compromising the original architectural integrity.  Too many historic homes throughout Atlanta have been torn down or modernized beyond all recognition.  Thankfully this is not the case with this beautiful and significant home.  870 Lullwater Road is a treasure waiting to be discovered.”

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Home-buying Demand Continues to Show Signs of Housing Market Recovery

Home-buying demand took another step towards recovery, gaining strength for the third week in a row, according to Redfin’s latest weekly report. After plummeting as much as 34% in March, home-buying is now down only 15% from pre-coronavirus pandemic levels on a seasonally-adjusted basis for the seven days ended on Sunday, April 26.

Will the housing recovery survive re-starting the economy?
So far, the reality is a more modest increase in new listings and pending sales. In the seven days ended April 24, almost 53,000 new homes hit the market compared to just over 48,000 for the seven days ended April 13—the date new listings hit the lowest level over the past two months. More new listings has led to more sales, with pending sales up from fewer than 31,000 in the seven days ended April 13 to more than 32,500 for the seven days ended April 24. Despite the increase in new listings, during the same period, there were fewer than 700,000 homes for sale in Redfin markets across the U.S., which is the lowest inventory level Redfin has seen anytime in the past five years.

Some of the new inventory hitting the market may be coming from buy-and-hold investors. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Redfin has heard stories of Airbnb landlords with sudden unexpected vacancy putting their homes up for sale. This week, Redfin started to hear more long-term rentals hitting the market. Marshall Carey, a Redfin agent in Washington D.C., said several clients decided to list because the college students who normally lease their units have headed home early. Across the country in Tacoma, Washington, Redfin agent Amber Allin has clients who are selling several long-term rental properties to free up cash for investments outside of real estate.

Overall prices are up just a touch, affordable homes are still selling like hotcakes
Even though some investors may be headed for the exits, prices have held steady. For the seven days ended April 24 the median listing price was $308,000, up 1% compared to the same period the prior year. Octavia Valencia, a Redfin agent in Atlanta says, “Buyers and sellers are in a deadlock. Buyers are asking ‘is now the right time,’ and making more conservative offers, but sellers are not willing to come down on price.” Graham Rogers, a Redfin agent in South Carolina added, “In the end, buyers are paying up to hit the seller’s bottom-line number.” 

Affordable, single-family homes is the one segment of the market where sellers are still firmly in control. Agents across the country are reporting that these homes often generate bidding wars with prices sometimes escalating tens of thousands of dollars above the asking price.

At higher price points, homes have to be well-priced and move-in ready. Rogers added, “Unless they’re looking for a fixer, buyers want everything to be done. People aren’t looking to spend an extra ten to fifteen thousand dollars to fix the place up, and now you don’t know when you can get contractors into your home. It’s tough to get bids. It’s tough to get a timeline.”

Rates are low, but deals are taking longer and some buyers are struggling with lending requirements
Mortgage rates ticked down this week to about 3.25%. That’s almost 0.5% lower than they were at the beginning of April and approaching the all-time lows seen back in February. Fannie Mae forecast that rates will continue to fall and could dip below 3% for the first time ever in 2021.

Lower rates are making monthly payments more affordable; the 0.5% decline in rate reduces the monthly payment on a $300,000 home by $65 per month. But it is taking more patience to bring a deal together. Time to close a transaction once the buyer and seller have agreed on price increased to almost 31 days for the seven days ended April 18. That’s up from 27 days in the last week of February before the pandemic started and the longest closing time we’ve seen since July of 2017. 

Lenders are still overwhelmed by the boom in refinance applications driven by the low rates, and now appraisals are taking longer due to coronavirus-related work restrictions. Carlos Barrientos, a Redfin agent in San Francisco, reports that appraisers have also gotten more conservative. “Appraisers will look at three similar homes and take the lowest of the three rather than taking an average. Even if one home has a great view or something special, they aren’t giving out any extra credit.” When this happens, it kicks off a whole new negotiation between the buyer and seller over how to cover the difference because lenders will only lend up to the appraised value. Barrientos added, “On top of appraisals, some buyers are struggling with lending requirements. They have 10% down payment, but suddenly the bank requires 20%. Now they have to wait.”