S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the July 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices reached a new all-time high with a decelerating trend for July 2024. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain for July, down from a 5.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.8%, down from a 7.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, dropping from a 6.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in July, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with annual increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively. Portland held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching the same 0.8% annual increase in July as last month.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.1% for the national index, and both the 20-City and 10-City Composites remained unchanged on the month.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.3%.
ANALYSIS
“Accounting for seasonality of home purchases, we have witnessed 14 consecutive record highs in our National Index,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “While the S&P 500 has achieved thirty-nine record highs and the S&P GSCI Gold TR hit thirty-five record highs, housing is following a similar trajectory. The growth has come at a cost, with all but two markets decelerating last month, eight markets seeing monthly declines, and the slowest annual growth nationally in 2024. Overall, the indices continue to grow at a rate that exceeds long-run averages after accounting for inflation.”
Luke continued, “We continue to observe out-performance in most low-price tiers in the market on a 3 and 5-year horizon. The low-price tier of Tampa was the best performing market nationally with 5-year performance of 88%. The New York market was the best market annually, posting a gain of 8.9%. New York’s low-tier index, which include home values up to $533,000, helped drive that growth with 10.8% annual gains. Over 5-years, markets such as New York and Atlanta, saw low price tiered indices outperforming their market by as much as 20% and 18%, respectively. The relative outperformance of low-price tiered indices has both benefited first time homebuyers as well as made it more difficult to for those looking for a stater home. The opposite is happening in California which has the most expensive high-price tiers in the nation, all well over $1 million. The rich are getting richer in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco where their high price-tiered indices outperformed on a 1- and 3-year basis.
Regionally, the Northeast remains the best performing market, with New York the top performer for 3-months running, followed by the Midwest region. All markets in the Northeast and Midwest recorded an all-time high. The south reported the slowest gains regionally but includes five of the seven best performing markets since 2020,” according to Luke.
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006 Peak
|
2012 Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From Peak (%)
|
Level
|
From Trough (%)
|
From Peak (%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
325.78
|
143.1 %
|
76.5 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
335.77
|
150.4 %
|
62.6 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
353.24
|
141.2 %
|
56.1 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
July 2024
|
July/June
|
June/May
|
1-Year
|
|
Metropolitan Area
|
Level
|
Change (%)
|
Change (%)
|
Change (%)
|
|
Atlanta
|
250.14
|
0.15 %
|
0.73 %
|
4.49 %
|
|
Boston
|
339.68
|
0.03 %
|
0.66 %
|
6.46 %
|
|
Charlotte
|
281.88
|
0.23 %
|
0.48 %
|
5.83 %
|
|
Chicago
|
210.41
|
0.45 %
|
1.01 %
|
6.67 %
|
|
Cleveland
|
195.71
|
1.10 %
|
0.75 %
|
6.97 %
|
|
Dallas
|
301.67
|
-0.11 %
|
0.39 %
|
1.87 %
|
|
Denver
|
322.21
|
-0.40 %
|
0.26 %
|
1.32 %
|
|
Detroit
|
191.19
|
0.39 %
|
1.13 %
|
6.65 %
|
|
Las Vegas
|
301.37
|
0.88 %
|
0.85 %
|
8.24 %
|
|
Los Angeles
|
445.63
|
-0.28 %
|
0.56 %
|
7.23 %
|
|
Miami
|
443.98
|
0.31 %
|
0.63 %
|
6.46 %
|
|
Minneapolis
|
243.21
|
0.14 %
|
0.65 %
|
2.03 %
|
|
New York
|
314.38
|
0.52 %
|
0.74 %
|
8.76 %
|
|
Phoenix
|
329.54
|
0.09 %
|
0.43 %
|
2.88 %
|
|
Portland
|
332.28
|
-0.01 %
|
0.13 %
|
0.84 %
|
|
San Diego
|
446.55
|
-0.58 %
|
0.62 %
|
7.19 %
|
|
San Francisco
|
363.20
|
-1.09 %
|
0.30 %
|
3.38 %
|
|
Seattle
|
397.29
|
-0.05 %
|
0.57 %
|
6.01 %
|
|
Tampa
|
387.84
|
-0.10 %
|
0.23 %
|
2.24 %
|
|
Washington
|
331.58
|
0.11 %
|
0.59 %
|
5.53 %
|
|
Composite-10
|
353.24
|
0.01 %
|
0.63 %
|
6.77 %
|
|
Composite-20
|
335.77
|
0.04 %
|
0.61 %
|
5.92 %
|
|
U.S. National
|
325.78
|
0.10 %
|
0.49 %
|
4.96 %
|
|
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
|
|
Data through July 2024
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
July/June Change (%)
|
June/May Change (%)
|
Metropolitan Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
0.15 %
|
0.08 %
|
0.73 %
|
0.19 %
|
Boston
|
0.03 %
|
0.39 %
|
0.66 %
|
0.34 %
|
Charlotte
|
0.23 %
|
0.21 %
|
0.48 %
|
-0.04 %
|
Chicago
|
0.45 %
|
0.31 %
|
1.01 %
|
0.24 %
|
Cleveland
|
1.10 %
|
0.37 %
|
0.75 %
|
0.26 %
|
Dallas
|
-0.11 %
|
0.04 %
|
0.39 %
|
-0.06 %
|
Denver
|
-0.40 %
|
0.03 %
|
0.26 %
|
0.18 %
|
Detroit
|
0.39 %
|
0.43 %
|
1.13 %
|
0.52 %
|
Las Vegas
|
0.88 %
|
0.47 %
|
0.85 %
|
0.23 %
|
Los Angeles
|
-0.28 %
|
0.28 %
|
0.56 %
|
0.56 %
|
Miami
|
0.31 %
|
0.38 %
|
0.63 %
|
-0.02 %
|
Minneapolis
|
0.14 %
|
0.18 %
|
0.65 %
|
0.08 %
|
New York
|
0.52 %
|
0.50 %
|
0.74 %
|
0.68 %
|
Phoenix
|
0.09 %
|
0.18 %
|
0.43 %
|
-0.25 %
|
Portland
|
-0.01 %
|
0.29 %
|
0.13 %
|
-0.24 %
|
San Diego
|
-0.58 %
|
0.12 %
|
0.62 %
|
0.70 %
|
San Francisco
|
-1.09 %
|
-0.42 %
|
0.30 %
|
0.63 %
|
Seattle
|
-0.05 %
|
1.08 %
|
0.57 %
|
0.87 %
|
Tampa
|
-0.10 %
|
-0.26 %
|
0.23 %
|
0.00 %
|
Washington
|
0.11 %
|
0.41 %
|
0.59 %
|
0.46 %
|
Composite-10
|
0.01 %
|
0.28 %
|
0.63 %
|
0.55 %
|
Composite-20
|
0.04 %
|
0.27 %
|
0.61 %
|
0.47 %
|
U.S. National
|
0.10 %
|
0.18 %
|
0.49 %
|
0.18 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through July 2024
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.